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What would happen to Czech power grid in 2030 if all coal power plants were shut down? On 24 May we have publicly presented a study which simulates this scenario. The result is that even without coal-fired generation it is possible to ensure stable electricity supply in the Czech Republic. The scenario includes an increase in renewables to which the current state of the power grid is no obstacle.
The full study called Czech Power Grid without Electricity from Coal by 2030: Possibilities for Integration of Renewable Resources and Transition into a System Based on Decentralized Sources is available at the end of article.
The current European trend comprises a redirection of the energy sector from coal to renewables. This process often raises the question whether electricity production from sources which are highly dependent on weather could threaten power grid stability and energy supply security. This question is quite reasonable considering the speed of the transformation process – renewables share on EU energy production are currently 30 % and is still rising. This increase is caused mainly by solar, wind and biomass generation. The Czech Republic has, until now, been eluding these changes. However, the numbers are clear: It is not possible to achieve the decrease in greenhouse gases emissions as stipulated by the Paris Convention with the current energy mix settings.
A thorough assessment of the power grid capabilities is one of the crucial points in the debate on energy transformation. The study at hand, being first of this kind in the Czech Republic, shows that the power grid is no obstacle to phasing out coal-fired power plants and integrating more renewables into the system.
The research was carried out by a renown German consulting company Energynautics, upon a request of Czech organizations – Glopolis, Frank Bold, Hnutí Duha (Friends of the Earth Czech Republic), CEE Bankwatch Network and ALIES.
The study is based on the results of a complex modelling through a computer software developed by Energynautics experts. The presumptions of the scenario were that all coal power plants which are used mainly for electricity generation (as opposed to cogeneration heating units) will be phased out by 2030. Another presumption was an increase in renewables electricity production: the model expects an increase in installed capacity of wind power generation from 278 MW in 2107 to 2050 MW in 2030, and of solar power generation from 2100 MW in 2017 to 5500 MW in 2030. The modelled scenario also included variations of energy sector development in the neighbouring countries. The software simulated the conduct of Czech power grid under the aforementioned conditions for all the days of a whole year.
The main findings of the study are:
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